Weekend Miscellany

It was an interesting weekend in baseball. First, the Rays have gone 2-8 over their last ten games, but found themselves back in first place in the AL East this morning because the Red Sox got swept over the weekend by the Anaheim Angels. Don't look now, but as both Boston and Tampa struggle, the Yankees are making headway in the division, having gone 7-3 in their last ten and pulling to 4.5 games out. This should make for an interesting stretch run.

There was also a trade over the weekend. The San Francisco Giants traded Ray Durham to Milwaukee for two prospects. The prospects weren't premium ones, but they might be useful down the road. One is pitcher Steve Hammond, who is left handed and strikes a good percentage of batters out, so that will probably earn him some play at some point. The other is outfielder Darren Ford, who profiles as a pinch runner/defensive replacement/fourth or fifth outfielder at the big league level. These guys aren't top prospects, but they are a bit more than organizational filler, too.

Durham could make a significant difference for the Brewers. For all of his tools and promise, Rickie Weeks has not performed as a major league second baseman. Durham is almost old enough to be Weeks' father, but he's putting up a line of .293/.385/.414 compared to Weeks' .216/.326/.365. The Brewers don't have too many weak spots in their lineup, but if they platoon Durham and Weeks (they are almost perfectly suited for this - Durham is significantly better against right handers and Weeks is much better against lefties) they will have filled the biggest weak spot admirably.

There is also a three team race in the NL East, with the Mets pulling into a tie with the Phillies and the Marlins hanging around a half game back. It should be fascinating to watch the Mets down the stretch because the media will mention their second half collapse last year at every turn.

Also, Oakland has gone 3-6 since trading Rich Harden and has now fallen nine games back of Anaheim in the AL West.

2008 Breakout Pick

My breakout pick for the 2008 MLB season is Corey Hart. Hart is a 26 year old rightfielder for the Milwaulkee Brewers. Last year he hit .293/.353/.539 over 140 games with 24 home runs and 23 stolen bases.

Hart was drafted out of high school and played his first professional games for the Ogden Raptors in 2000. He repeated the rookie level in 2001 at Ogden and dominated, with a .941 OPS and 11 homers and 14 stolen bases in 67 games. He split time between high A and AA in 2002, hitting 24 home runs combined. He spent a complete year at AA in 2003 and had an .807 OPS.

At 22 years old, Corey debuted in AAA, an made his major league debut the same year. While bouncing between the majors and AAA over the next two years, Corey's OPS' at AAA were .830 and .913. In 2006 Corey spent the majority of the season in the big leagues (his OPS at AAA was .951 for the 26 games he was down).

The Brewers had a bit of a glut of outfielders in 2006, with Carlos Lee, Brady Clark and Geoff Jenkins getting the majority of starts. But Hart managed to get 237 at bats and performed well (.283/.328/.468). Then in the offseason before the 2007 season, the Brewers allowed Carlos Lee and Brady Clark to leave, opening up a full time position for Hart in 2007.

This season, Hart will be back starting in the outfield and will get a prime spot in the lineup, batting in some combination with Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Braun. I expect him to continue to hit well and to get a lot of opportunities to bat with runners on base. In a perfect world, the Brewers lineup would look like this:

1. Rickie Weeks - 2B - .374 OBP in 2007
2. JJ Hardy - SS - .323 OBP; .423 SLG in 2007
3. Ryan Braun - LF - .370 OBP; .634 SLG in 2007
4. Prince Fielder - 1B - .395 OPBP; .619 SLG in 2007
5. Corey Hart - RF - .353 OBP; .539 SLG in 2007
6. Bill Hall - 3B
7. Mike Cameron - CF
8. Jonny Estrada - C

JJ Hardy is a little low on the OBP for the #2 slot and Corey Hart might actually be better there, but for my fantasy team, I like Hart at the #5 slot so he can get more RBI opportunities.

So Hart is my breakout pick for this year and I expect his line to look like this:

.302/.362/.582 with 32 homeruns and 25 stolen bases.