Pitch f/x: Dan Haren

Dan Haren was traded by Oakland to Arizona this past offseason as part of the rebuilding effort of Oakland and the push by Arizona to solidify their chances in the National League West. His addition gave them a strong 1-2 punch at the front of their rotation with Brandon Webb, allowing Randy Johnson to slot as their #3 starter.

The conventional thinking was that Haren would thrive in the National League, which is traditionally more of a small ball league. However, there were some in the media that looked at the pitching-friendly environment in Oakland and the hitter-friendly environment of Arizona and believed that the difference in leagues would be evened out, or even overcome, by the ballpark differences and that Haren would pitch worse in the NL than he did in the AL.

Well, Haren has, in fact, been signficantly better for Arizona than he was with Oakland last year. His ERA so far is 2.56 compared to 3.07 last year for Oakland. That difference grows to more than a run when you compare his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, defined here): this year he's at 2.75, while last year he was at 3.70. He has improved his strikeout rate, his walk rate, his homerun rate and his WHIP this season.

The interesting thing is that the difference does not seem to be due to haren changing leagues. Baseball Reference has a great tool that neutralizes statistics to allow them to be compared across leagues and seasons (their explanation of how it works is here). According to Haren's neutralized statistics, his ERA is still more than half a run better this season.

So why is Haren better? Haren turns 28 years old this September, so the improvement could just be the natural progression of his talent; he is just entering his prime and he is learning how to pitch to major league hitters and how best to utilize his talents. By looking at his Pitch f/x stats we can see exactly what he is doing differently that may account for his improvement.

The first thing to note is that the changes in Haren's pitch selection have been gradual over the last few years. His first year as a starter with Oakland (and coincidentally, the first year that Pitch f/x data was available) was 2005 and he threw 59.2% fastballs. That number has gone down every year since then, to the point where this year he is throwing 50.3% fastballs.

Also, in 2005 Haren was throwing a small percentage of curveballs and changeups. He has gradually worked those out of his repertoire. In 2007 he increased the number of splitters that he threw from 19.5% in 2006 to 22.9%, but those have also decreased this year, down to 20%. So with the decrease in fastballs and splitters and the elimination of curves and changeups, what is he throwing more of?

Well, there aren't too many pitch types left. The answer is sliders and cutters. He has always relied on his slider, throwing it as often as his splitter in 2006 and 2007, but so far this year it has gone up to 23.9%. His cutter was a rare pitch in previous seasons, never even reaching 2%, but this year he has thrown it almost 6%.

I would suggest that this change indicates that Haren is figuring out what works best for him and is paring away all of the other unnecessary pitches. By removing curves and changeups from his arsenal, he can focus on the pitches that work well for him. I also wonder if being around two other dominant pitchers with limited arsenals has worn off on him. Brandon Webb throws about 75% fastballs and Randy Johnson is primarily a fastball/slider guy (with a few splitters mixed in). Regardless of the reasons, Haren continues to improve as a pitcher and is certainly everything the Diamondbacks hoped for when they traded for him this past offseason.

Opening Day Predictions - National League

Technically, opening day was a week ago, when the Red Sox played the A's in Tokyo. The games counted towards the regular season, but it didn't feel much like Opening Day. Even tonight, Atlanta plays Washington, won't seem like Opening Day - that's tomorrow, when the rest of the teams start playing for real.

Every year about this time I make some predictions and I'm usually only right about the obvious stuff. That won't stop me, though - it's just too much fun making the predictions. Here goes:

Division Winners:

NL East: New York - they aren't without their problems, namely that Delgado and Castillo are past their prime and the Church/Pagan/Chavez trio will be filling 2 outfield spots, but the offense can revolve around Wright, Beltran and Reyes and let Delgado and the others be complementary players. Their big upgrade in pitching (switching out Glavine for Santana in the rotation) makes them a lot better, although I am skeptical of Pedro's health at this point in his career. I would expect the Mets to deal for a starter at the trade deadline (although they've only got one big trading chip left: Fernando Martinez).

I'm not a fan of the Phillies - their offense will be exciting with Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Burrell - but the back of the rotation with Jaime Moyer, Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton scares me. The Braves, on the other hand, I do like. With Kelly Johnson setting the table and Jones, Teixeira, McCann and Francouer forming the heart of the linup, they should score some runs. Smoltz and Hudson at the top of the rotation is nice, and I like the pickup of Jurrjens for the middle of the rotation. Unfortunately, the starting 5 is rounded out by Mike Hampton and Tom Glavine, who both might be toast (although Hampton looked good when I saw him in the Spring).

NL Central: Milwaukee - I like this Brewers team a lot. There is no doubt that they will score some runs, with Fielder, Braun, and Hart in the center of the lineup. They are complemented well in almost every spot: Weeks and Hardy are young starts just notch below the other three, Hall has proven that he can play big (see 2006), and Cameron will be his usual solid-if-not-spectacular self. The health of Ben Sheets is always a question, but I am going out on a limb and picking him to get 30 starts and be in the hunt for the Cy Young. Add Yovani Gallardo, the ever-steady Jeff Suppan and the potential of Manny Parra to Sheets and you've got a deep and talented starting staff.

I dislike the Cubs on principal as a Cardinals fan. As an unbiased baseball fan, though, I think this team is poised to make a run. The NL Central, which was the laughingstock of baseball the last two seasons, will be an exciting division to watch, as the Cubs and Brewers will battle for first place all season and the loser will get the Wild Card. The Cubs upgrades over last season (Fukudome and Pie instead of Jaque Jones and Clif Floyd; and a full season of Geovany Soto instead of Barrett/Kendall) will make a huge difference in their offense (as would the potential switch of DeRosa for Brian Roberts, if they can ever finalize the deal with Baltimore). I am a bit worried about the possibility of Marquis and Dempster at the end of their rotation, but they've got some youngsters (including Sean Marshall) to fill in if trouble arises. I also like the end of their bullpen with Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood (converting him to the pen will save his career, in my opinion).

NL West: Los Angeles - I don't trust this team to do the right thing with its young players, but I think they will overcome some poor choices because they have talent across the board (Juan Pierre notwithstanding). Russell Martin is just entering his prime, Ethier, Kemp and Loney are young studs (and LaRoche would be if he'd stay healthy) and Kent and Andruw Jones still have some in the tank. The pitching is deep, too with Penny, Lowe, Billingsly and Kuroda starting and Broxton and Saito in the pen.

If the Dodgers falter, there will be a mad rush to take their place. I love the Diamondbacks young team and Webb/Haren is might be the best duo in the NL. If they aren't the best duo in the NL, then it is probably Peavy/Young with San Diego. The Padres problem is that they will rely too much on Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles to carry their offense. The reigning NL Champions, the Rockies, will also be in the hunt, but I am afraid that their pitching will come up short this season.

Miscellaneous NL Predictions:

MVP: David Wright - He should have won last year and I would expect him to be close to the top of the ballot for years to come. He wins this year as he leads the Mets to the playoffs.

Cy Young: Ben Sheets - The obvious choice would be Santana or Peavy, but I'm sticking with my prediction of this being the year that Sheets stays healthy and puts it all together.

ROY: Geovany Soto - Every fiber of my being wants it to be Colby Rasmus of the Cardinals. If Braun won it last year after coming up in May, why can't Colby this year? Colby and Jay Bruce will probably have better careers, but I'm going with Soto in this one because he will get more at bats to pile up the counting stats and his team will get more attention because they'll be in the pennant race.

Johan Santana: 17-8, 3.23 ERA, 242 K's - A very good year, but not a Cy Young performance.

Dan Haren: 15-10, 3.63 ERA, 194 K's - Haren might be the game's best #2 starter, but don't confuse him for a #1 (luckily the D-Backs already have Brandon Webb).

Kosuke Fukudome: .278/.389/.438 - He will adjust well to the United States and will be even better in 2009.

Corey Hart: .292/.367/.571 and 32 homers - a breakout year, combining with Fielder and Braun to bring the Wallbangers back to Milwaukee.

Tomorrow: the American League