Watched: Power Lefty Night

There were three games that I wanted to watch tonight and all involved left handed power pitchers. CC Sabathia was making his first start for the Milwaukee Brewers against Colorado, Scott Kazmir was starting for the Tampa Bay Rays against the New York Yankees and Cole Hamels of the Phillies was facing the St. Louis Cardinals.

The story of the night, of course, was supposed to be CC Sabathia and he lived up to expectations. The crowd in Milwaukee was loud, the Brewers offense came out swinging (Ryan Braun hit a three run homer before the Rockies had recorded an out in the first inning) and Sabathia was pumping heat. He looked a little nervous, walking two batters in the first inning, but he was also getting his fastball up to 97 mph in the first frame. Sabathia's stuff seemed fantastic all night, but he was a bit wild - walking five men on the evening and piling up the pitch count as he worked in and out of trouble all night. The walks caught up with him in the sixth inning when the Rockies loaded the bases on an infield hit and two walks and then Yorvit Torrealba slashed a two-run double to right. Sabathia survived the inning without giving up another run and left the game with a 4-3 lead (only two runs were earned), having struck out five over his six innings of work. The Brewers tacked on some runs against the Rockies bullpen and won the game 7-3.

Scott Kazmir looked great to start the evening, as well. He struck out five of the first six hitters and seven of the first nine outs he recorded were by strikeout. Unfortunately, he also allowed a single and two doubles in the third inning resulting in two runs. Kazmir didn't manage his pitch count very well, which happens pretty often to strikeout pitchers. He only lasted five innings (97 pitches), striking out nine and giving up five hits and a walk. On the other side of the ledger was Andy Pettitte, who was dominant. He went 8 innings, giving up five hits and no runs and the Yankees took the win, 5-0.

Cole Hamels was also dominant, but, like Kasmir, he was outdueled on this evening. Hamels only gave up three hits over seven innings and struck out eight, but two of the three hits were solo home runs (Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick). Those were the only runs that the Cardinals needed to beat Hamels and the Phillies on this night as Joel Piniero pitched 6.1 shutout innings and Ron Villone, Kyle McClellan and Ryan Franklin were almost untoucheable in relief (Franklin allowed a base hit in the ninth - the only hit off of the St. Louis bullpen).

Trade: Harden to Cubs

The Cubs wasted little time in answering the Brewers' aquisition of CC Sabathia. Rich Harden isn't quite as much of a sure thing as Sabathia is, but if he can stay healthy he can provide similar results.

While I liked the Sabathia deal for both the Brewers and the Indians, I'm not as sure that I like this deal for Oakland. Perhaps they felt that they had to strike while the Cubs were still feeling the pressure of the Brewers deal or perhaps they wanted to make the move before Harden could hurt himself again, but the move seems a little premature to me. Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus wrote that he believed that the Indians could have gotten more for Sabathia if they had waited until closer to the trade deadline, I can only imagine what he thinks of this move (actually, I'll probably read about it tomorrow). It seems to me that Oakland had even more incentive to wait to trade Harden: with Sabathia off the market, Harden became the best available starting pitcher on the trade market. Had Oakland waited and played all of the potential suitors off of one another, they could have driven the price up - potentially higher than what the Brewers paid for Sabathia.

There are several differences between this trade and the Sabathia trade. First, Harden will not be a free agent until after the 2009 season, so he is not merely a second half rental, as Sabathia is expected to be. Second, Oakland is also sending Chad Gaudin to the Cubs. Gaudin is a young (25 years old) right handed pitcher that has started some in his career and has also come out of the pen. He is the type of pitcher that will not be a difference maker, but can be a valuable pitcher to a contender. Third, none of the players that Oakland received back from the Cubs appear to have star potential like Matt LaPorta does in the Sabathia trade. Sean Gallagher is probably the best prospect in the deal; he is a twenty-two year old starting pitcher that has a pretty decent strikeout ratio. I've never seen him pitch, but he seems like he might have the potential to be a decent mid-rotation starter. Matt Murton has proven to be a valuable fourth outfielder for a major league team (he was probably being under-utilized by the Cubs, actually). Eric Patterson is an exciting slash and burn type of player that would be much more valuable if he could stay at second base, but the Cubs had decided that he would have to be an outfielder if he was to make it in the big leagues. Perhaps Oakland disagrees and will shift him back to the infield. The final piece is Josh Donaldson, who is a catcher that is still at low A Peoria, so it is difficult to know what they've got in him.

So, while LaPorta seems to be the type of player that can be used by the Indians as a foundation to their offense, Oakland hasn't really received anyone with quite as clear of a path. Gallagher represents one of the most valuable commodities in baseball: a cost-controlled starting pitcher, but those are also much more speculative than players of LaPorta's ilk (as Oakland knows - it worked for them with Danny Haren and did not with Dan Meyer).

I'm not trying to argue that Oakland should have received as much as Cleveland received for Sabathia, I am only wondering why they made the deal now, for a package that can hardly be described as 'bowling them over'. It is almost heresy in some circles to criticize Billy Beane's moves, but they don't always work out (as the Tim Hudson for Dan Meyer deal showed). Oakland almost certainly got some useful pieces in this deal, but I have to believe that they could have gotten more had they waited until July 31st to make a trade. They may get to test that theory if they decide to also trade Joe Blanton this month.

The questions we are left with are: Is AJ Burnett the next pitcher to get traded? Erik Bedard? Which team will feel the pressure to make a move next (St. Louis?)?

Daily Links

The bloggers union has been getting on me about the lack of links that I provide on a daily basis, so I decided I should try and fulfill my quota. Here, then, are links to the stories that I've been reading today.

Joe Sheehan (who I almost always disagree with) had a nice take on the CC Sabathia trade.

I love this idea for a yearly column, some of the guys on the list, though, seem to have been washed up for a while now.

I didn't see this play happen live, but I watched the replay multiple times last night and this morning.

Buster Olney's recap of news stories from around major league baseball is a must-read every morning and I agree with his take on the Cubs response to the CC Sabathia trade.

Fan Graphs has Evan Longoria as the most valuable commodity in major league baseball. I'm not sure I can agree with that, but they've got the numbers and methodology to support that position. Agree or not, it is a fascinating piece.

Former Dodger's GM Paul DePodesta is in the front office for the Padres now and he wants the public's opinion on what the Padres should do at the trading deadline.

And that's all I've got for now. I'll try to post a half dozen or so links every day, just to keep the blog union thugs from knocking on my door.

Watched: Braves @ Dodgers

I have never seen a no-hitter. Not in person and not on television. So when I heard that Hiroki Kuroda had put down every hitter he'd faced through five innings, I turned on the game. I figured that as soon as I started watching, the Braves would get a hit. But he put them down in order in the sixth and then he got Chipper Jones to weakly ground out to end a perfect seventh and I started to wonder. Blake DeWitt made a brilliant play on a bunt attempt by Gregor Blanco to lead off the seventh and that's when it started to feel like it might be really happening.

This was the first time that I'd seen Kuroda pitch. All I really knew about him is that the Dodgers paid a pretty good price for him to pitch for them and he hadn't really lived up to the hype. Looking at his stats, though, he hasn't pitched all that poorly. Going into the night he was 4-6 with a 3.59 ERA.

Kuroda has good "stuff" - his fastball touched 95 and he also threw a nice sinker at 88-89 and a slider in the mid 80's. As would be expected, he was hitting his spots almost without fail. He wasn't striking out a ton of guys, just six through seven innings, but he wasn't giving up any solid contact, either.

Mark Teixeira led off the eighth inning and... I still haven't seen a no-hitter. Teixeira ripped a double down the right field line, ending the perfect game and no-hitter. The Dodgers ended up winning the game 3-0 and Kuroda finished off a masterful complete game one-hitter.

Trade: Sabathia for LaPorta and others

The first big trade of the season came today, more than three weeks before the trading deadline. Getting the trade done so early puts the Brewers in a unique position: they could conceivably trade Sabathia away if they somehow fall apart in the next three weeks. Imagine a scenario where the Cubs and Cardinals (or some other Wild Card contender) get hot, Ben Sheets gets injured (not hard to imagine) and the Brewers fall ten games back in the Central and 5-7 back in the Wild Card. Under such a scenario, maybe the Brewers re-trade Sabathia for prospects in an effort to re-load for next year.

Ok, now that the implausible is out of the way (it is much more likely that the Brewers are energized by the acquisition and pull ahead in the Wild Card and closer to the Cubs in the Central), lets get to the trade itself. I think the trade is a great one for both teams. From the Brewers perspective, they now have arguably the best 1-2 punch at the top of their starting rotation in the National League (Arizona with Webb and Haren would be the other candidate for that honor). The move also allows Jeff Suppan to slot back into the #3 slot in the rotation, which fits his 'league-average-innings eater' profile much better. With young stud lefthander, Manny Parra, in the #4 slot and future-ace Yovanni Gallardo scheduled to come off the DL late in the season, the Brewers could have a very stingy rotation come playoff time.

Then you look at what they gave up. The big name, of course, is Matt LaPorta. LaPorta was a power hitting first baseman at Florida and many considered him to be the best college hitter in the 2006 draft. The Brewers took him with the seventh overall pick, which surprised everyone because they already had Prince Fielder holding down first base for the foreseeable future. The Brewers turned LaPorta into a left fielder and he has been tearing up the minor leagues since being drafted. The problem was that, even if he could play outfield passably (which is up for debate), the Brewers still didn't really have a spot for him. They moved Ryan Braun to left field from third base this season - a move that was an absolute necessity considering Braun's defense at third. It is unlikely that LaPorta would be able to play a credible right field, but even so, the Brewers have Corey Hart, who is one of the better players on the team (and a personal favorite of mine). There is some talk that Hart could play center field, but an outfield of Braun, Hart and LaPorta would have certainly been the worst defensive outfield in all of baseball. Maybe ever.

So while it was becoming apparently that LaPorta didn't have much left to prove in the minor leagues, it was a serious question of where the Brewers were ever going to play him. That he became the centerpiece in a deal to acquire one of the top pitchers in baseball seems like a perfect utilization of assets to me.

The Indians, on the hand, have no use for CC Sabathia right now. They faced the grim realization that their hopes for contending this season are over (they are in last place in the AL Central, a game and a half behind the Royals as I'm writing this). Grady Sizemore is having a fantastic season and Casey Blake is playing well for being, well, Casey Blake. Otherwise, every one of their offensive players have disappointed this season. Many people expected Travis Hafner to bounce back after a down season for him last year, but instead he fell off a cliff. Ryan Garko has slugged .342 as the Indians everyday first baseman. Victor Martinez' OPS is .665 and he hasn't hit a home run yet. On the pitching side, Cliff Lee has been outstanding and Sabathia has been great since his rough first month of the season. Paul Bryd has been his usual less-than-mediocre self and Fausto Carmona has been injured for about half of the season.

On top of the really bad baseball that they've been playing all season, the Indians were in a bad spot with Sabathia. He is due to be a free agent after the season and he refused to work on an extension with the team during the season. Left with the option of holding onto him and receiving two compensatory draft picks for him, or trading him for four prospects, I think they made the right decision. LaPorta is almost certainly more valuable by himself than the highest of those picks, if only because he has proven to be successful at AA and draft picks are still mostly a crap shoot (not to mention that there is no guarantee that the picks would be at the top of the first round - that depends on who signs Sabathia as a free agent).

So they get LaPorta (for starters), who should be competing for either Garko or Hafner's job next season and will certainly be a starter in the big leagues by the end of 2009 (barring unforeseen circumstances). He will probably never hit for a high average in the major leagues, but he should provide solid power in the middle of the Indians lineup. As long as they hold onto Sizemore and Ben Francisco continues to develop, LaPorta gives them the start of a nice offense. A couple of other savvy pickups and they are right back in the playoff hunt - which makes this deal a nice accelerant for a rebuilding effort.

The trade should really be analyzed like this:

To Brewers:

The increase in potential to make the playoffs in 2008

The ability to try and sell Sabathia on Milwaukee for the rest of the season (possibly negligible in value)

A first round pick (assuming Sabathia signs elsewhere)

A supplemental first round pick

From Brewers:

A former top draft pick with no position to play for the foreseeable future

Three other lesser prospects

To Indians:

A potential middle-of-the-order hitter that can replace either of two weak spots on the big league squad within a season or so

Three other lesser prospects

From Indians:

An ace starting pitcher that wasn't going to make any significant difference in the outcome of this season and who wouldn't be with the Indians next year (unless they sign him as a free agent, which they can still do)

The right to two draft picks.

All Star Rosters

The last two days I've discussed who should be selected as starters for both the National Leauge and the American League. Now I'm going to close the loop on this subject by giving you what I think should be the complete rosters for each team. Then I'll be done discussing the rosters for the All Star Game (finally). I have followed the rules for roster construction, so each team is represented and there are 32 players per team.

With no further ado, here are my rosters (the starters are marked with an asterisk):

National League

Catchers: Brian McCann*, Russell Martin, Geovany Soto

First Basemen: Lance Berkman*, Adrian Gonzalez

Second Basemen: Chase Utley*, Dan Uggla

Shortstops: Hanley Ramirez*, Jose Reyes

Third Basemen: Chipper Jones*, Aramis Ramirez

Outfielders: Pat Burrell*, Jason Bay*, Carlos Beltran*, Ryan Braun, Ryan Ludwick, Nate McLouth, Kosuke Fukudome

Designated Hitter: Albert Pujols

Starting Pitchers: Brandon Webb*, Edinson Volquez, Tim Lincecum, Ben Sheets, Danny Haren, Aaron Cook, Johan Santana, Jair Jurrjens

Relief Pitcher: Brad Lidge, Billy Wagner, Kerry Wood, Jon Rauch, Brandon Lyon

Jon Rauch was the only selection that was a bit of a stretch so that all teams were represented, but he's had a pretty decent half season as closer for the Nationals. Aaron Cook is the only Colorado representative and there were other pitchers that were probably more deserving, but his selection isn't a huge stretch. Notable snubs on my selected team include Mark Teixeira, David Wright, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Tim Hudson, Cole Hamels, Kyle Lohse, Chad Billingsly.

American League

Catchers: Joe Mauer*, Dioner Navarro, Gerald Laird

First Basemen: Jason Giambi*, Kevin Youkilis

Second Basemen: Ian Kinsler*, Brian Roberts

Shortstops: Michael Young*, Derek Jeter

Third Basemen: Alex Rodriguez*, Evan Longoria

Outfielders: JD Drew*, Josh Hamilton*, Carlos Quentin*, Grady Sizemore, Manny Ramirez, Jermaine Dye, Magglio Ordonez

Designated Hitter: Milton Bradley

Starting Pitchers: Cliff Lee*, Joe Saunders, Roy Halladay, Zach Greinke, Felix Hernandez, James Shields, Justin Duchsherer, Ervin Santana

Relief Pitchers: Francisco Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon

The American League was easier (which makes sense with fewer teams) - there were no choices that were made solely to make sure each team is represented. Jermaine Dye was not on my list on Monday, which was an oversight on my part. Notable snubs include Nick Markakis, BJ Upton, Justin Morneau, David DeJesus, John Danks, Shawn Marcum, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Gavin Floyd, Matt Garza, Jon Lester.

National League All Star Selections

Yesterday I went through the American League All Star selections and discussed the criteria for my selections. I am not going to go through that again with the NL, you can look at yesterday's post for my methodology. Today I'm just going to get right to the picks.

[All statistics are through June 30, 2008]

Catcher

It wasn't too long ago that the catcher position was a weak spot in the National Leauge, but in the last couple of years there has been a renaissance at the position with some of the best hitters in the league playing catcher. Here is the list of candidates:

Brian McCann - .295/.365/.536 - 14 hr, 45 rbi
Russell Martin - .307/.404/.444 - 8 hr, 37 rbi, 7 sb
Geovany Soto - .281/.367/.513 - 13 hr, 47 rbi

Ryan Doumit - .346/.391/.622 - 10 hr, 25 rbi

I set Doumit apart because he missed about twenty games while he was on the DL. His statistics are fantastic, but he's been limited to only 156 at bats, which is just more than half of what the other candidates have logged (which actually makes the homerun total more impressive).

McCann and Martin are just about a toss up for the catcher's spot on the team and Soto isn't far behind. You get a bit more power with McCann and a bit more OBP and speed from Martin. Both are solid behind the plate and you can't really go wrong with either choice. I would take McCann because his edge in power is larger than Martin's edge in OBP. Neither have an edge in the 'legacy' category, as they have pretty similar performance histories.

First Base

Because the All Star Game is being played in an American League park this season, the NL will get to utilize a DH in the starting lineup, which is good for the NL, because the two best hitters in the league both play first base. Here are the candidates:

Lance Berkman - .365/.448/.699 - 22 hr, 68 rbi, 12 sb
Albert Pujols - .357/.482/.635 - 17 hr, 47 rbi, 2 sb
Adrian Gonzalez - .288/.358/.530 - 21 hr, 68 rbi
Mark Teixeira - .276/.379/.495 - 16 hr, 62 rbi

This is obviously a two man race. Berkman and Pujols are both putting up MVP caliber seasons to this point. Pujols is a bit behind on the counting statistics because he spent 15 days on the DL with a leg injury, but Berkman's rate statistics are probably a tick better than Pujols' anyway. Berkman's twelve stolen bases are already a career-high, and they are surprising for a guy that once called himself "Fat Elvis". Pujols probably has the edge in 'legacy' as a former MVP winner, but Berkman is the right choice, regardless.

Second Base

Before I had looked at the numbers, I thought this position was a no-brainer, but it is a lot closer than I had thought (although my original thought was the right one). Here is the list:

Chase Utley - .297/.384/.610 - 23 hr, 65 rbi, 7 sb
Dan Uggla - .289/.375/.620 - 23 hr, 58 rbi, 4 sb

Utley would have won the MVP last season if he hadn't missed some time towards the end of the season due to injury. He started this season on fire - hitting eleven homers in March/April, then slowing down considerably in May (8 hr, .259/.354/.537) and June (4 hr, .266/.364/.511) which allowed Uggla to start to catch him statistically with a torrid May (12 hr, .347/.425/.827). I think Utley still gets the nod, but it is much closer than I would have thought. Utley might have a slight edge in the 'legacy' category, but they both have a pretty decent history of performance.

Third Base

Chipper Jones - .394/.485/.630 - 16 hr, 46 rbi, 2 sb
Aramis Ramirez - .289/.390/.502 - 14 hr, 55 rbi
David Wright - .283/.376/.492 - 15 hr, 64 rbi, 8 sb

Chipper is having a historically good season, which is only tempered by his inability to stay healthy. He has already missed twelve games with various nagging injuries, but any time he is in the lineup he has hit and hit for power. Expectations are so high for David Wright that his performance to this point is seen as a little bit of a disappointment. Wright should have won the MVP last season and he is one of the best players in the National League, but there should be nothing disappointing about the numbers above, no matter who you are.

Shortstop

There are two wonderfully talented young shortstops in the National League and they are joined by an over-the-hill player that has somehow raised his game to levels no one expected. Here is the list:

Hanley Ramirez - .296/.384/.536 - 19 hr, 36 rbi, 20 sb
Jose Reyes - .292/.354/.478 - 9 hr, 34 rbi, 28 sb
Christian Guzman - .314/.342/.434 - 5 hr, 27 rbi, 3 sb

Now, Guzman shouldn't really get any votes above Ramirez or Reyes, but I just have to mention him here. I wrote about his history a bit in an earlier post, so I won't go into it again, but everyone thought he was washed up two years ago and now he is playing better (at age 30) than he has ever played in his life. Pretty amazing.

Ramirez is one of the best young offensive players in the game, but is absolutely brutal defensively. He will almost certainly be moved to the outfield at some point in the near future. For now, though, he gets my vote for the All Star team because his offensive advantages over Reyes overcome his defensive deficiencies.

Outfield

The NL outfield is a bit odd this season. There aren't any big name players dominating and making the choice an easy one and most of the candidates have some flaw that keeps them from being an automatic vote. Here is the list of contenders:

Pat Burrell - .271/.410/.571 - 19 hr, 49 rbi
Jason Bay - .284/.387/.531 - 16 hr, 43 rbi, 6 sb
Carlos Beltran - .271/.374/.479 - 12 hr, 54 rbi, 11 sb
Ryan Ludwick - .285/.362/.574 - 16 hr, 56 rbi, 4 sb
Ryan Braun - .282/.317/.544 - 20 hr, 58 rbi, 8 sb
Nate McLouth - .280/.359/.522 - 15 hr, 52 rbi, 9 sb
Kosuke Fukudome - .296/.404/.430 - 6 hr, 34 rbi, 7 sb

That's an odd looking group to be discussing for All Star berths, right? Carlos Beltran is the biggest star on the list and his numbers aren't necessarily eye-popping. Burrell's numbers are great and he has some history of this kind of performance in his career, but he has been very inconsistent from year to year. Bay is returning to form after a sub-par 2007 by his standards. Ludwick has never been healthy enough to keep a job for a full season and there isn't much prior history with him to determine whether his hot start is for real. Braun was the ROY last year and has picked things up after a slow start, but his OBP is still a bit low for my taste.

I suppose I'd take Burrell, Bay and Beltran, but you could almost take any three players on this list and make a solid argument in their favor.