Postseason Awards - American League

As promised yesterday, here is the breakdown for the American League postseason awards.

MVP

Despite all the negative things said and written about Alex Rodriguez, he is still one of the front-runners for the MVP award. He is ninth in the league in batting average, fifth in the league in on base percentage and first in slugging percentage. He has hit 30 home runs, which ties him for sixth in the league. He has also stolen 16 bases. My guess, though, is that he won't win the award this year. The decision this year is not as clear in years past and the Yankees disappointing season, combined with the negative press A-Rod receives will work against him this year.

Maybe he doesn't deserve it anyway. Grady Sizemore has put up a .273/.385/.525 line and has 31 home runs and 35 stolen bases. The problem for Grady is that the Indians are currently under .500 (although they are surging) and voters don't usually like candidates that play for teams that are out of the playoff hunt. Carlos Quentin plays for a contender and has a .288/.394/.571 line and leads the league with 36 home runs. An argument could be made for Josh Hamilton because he leads the league with 121 RBI, but I'm not even going to dignify that. Joe Mauer has a very good line, but his power numbers are a bit too low and his high batting average and on base percentage can't make up the difference between him and other candidates.

I really think that a vote for A-Rod or Grady Sizemore would be a rational pick, but that the BWAA will probably not be rational and will choose Quentin.

My pick: Alex Rodriguez
My preseason pick: Alex Rodriguez

Cy Young

By almost any metric, the answer here is Cliff Lee. He leads the league in wins (20-2) and ERA (2.32) and is second in innings pitched. The only starter that is close is Roy Halliday, who is tied for second in wins (17-9), third in ERA (2.69) and is third in the league in strikeouts with 178. The only problem with these two candidates is that their teams are not in contention, which is important to the voters. Ervin Santana pitches for the Angels, who will win the AL West, and he has a 14-5 record with a 3.31 ERA and 183 strikeouts. Those are great numbers, but I don't think the contention of his team is enough to overcome almost a full run in ERA.

The complicating factor this year is that Francisco Rodriguez will almost certainly break the single season record for saves this year. He already has 54 and those kinds of things really impress the voters. The problem is that, while he has piled up the saves, he hasn't really even been the best closer in the American League, much less the best pitcher. Joe Posnanski (TBSWIA) made the argument that K-Rod is undeserving of the Cy Young better than I could in a digression in this post, so just go there and read Joe's take - I'll wait. Ok, are you back? I can understand if you just stayed over there and read all of Joe's stuff, but then you would miss my picks:

My pick: Cliff Lee
My preseason pick: Daisuke Matsuzaka - he would have been a great pick if he hadn't missed some time this season: 16-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 131 strikeouts in 146.2 innings.

ROY

Evan Longoria was called up a month into the season and has missed about a month since then due to a hand injury, so he only has 381 at bats. In that time, however, he put up a .278/.352/.533 line with 22 home runs, seven stolen bases and outstanding third base defense. His competition is, uh, hmmm... Alexei Ramirez? With a .306/.324/.491 line and 16 home runs, he's had a solid season, but I'd put him short of Longoria. David Murphy? Ben Francisco? How about Armando Galarraga and his 12-4 record with a 3.17 ERA and 108 strikeouts? Nice, but...

My pick: Evan Longoria
My preseason pick: Adam Jones, who has had a good year, but apparently isn't eligible for the ROY (yup, I'm an idiot). I did mention Longoria would win if given enough at bats, so I get partial credit, right?

*********

Daily Links - 9/4/08

TBSWIA, Joe Posnanski, weighs in on some Hall of Fame comparisons. This is another one of those classic topic to argue in baseball, just like postseason awards.

Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus takes a look at some interesting September call ups.

Buster Olney has the details of a great story from last night's games that will make any true baseball fan smile.

All Star Rosters

The last two days I've discussed who should be selected as starters for both the National Leauge and the American League. Now I'm going to close the loop on this subject by giving you what I think should be the complete rosters for each team. Then I'll be done discussing the rosters for the All Star Game (finally). I have followed the rules for roster construction, so each team is represented and there are 32 players per team.

With no further ado, here are my rosters (the starters are marked with an asterisk):

National League

Catchers: Brian McCann*, Russell Martin, Geovany Soto

First Basemen: Lance Berkman*, Adrian Gonzalez

Second Basemen: Chase Utley*, Dan Uggla

Shortstops: Hanley Ramirez*, Jose Reyes

Third Basemen: Chipper Jones*, Aramis Ramirez

Outfielders: Pat Burrell*, Jason Bay*, Carlos Beltran*, Ryan Braun, Ryan Ludwick, Nate McLouth, Kosuke Fukudome

Designated Hitter: Albert Pujols

Starting Pitchers: Brandon Webb*, Edinson Volquez, Tim Lincecum, Ben Sheets, Danny Haren, Aaron Cook, Johan Santana, Jair Jurrjens

Relief Pitcher: Brad Lidge, Billy Wagner, Kerry Wood, Jon Rauch, Brandon Lyon

Jon Rauch was the only selection that was a bit of a stretch so that all teams were represented, but he's had a pretty decent half season as closer for the Nationals. Aaron Cook is the only Colorado representative and there were other pitchers that were probably more deserving, but his selection isn't a huge stretch. Notable snubs on my selected team include Mark Teixeira, David Wright, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Tim Hudson, Cole Hamels, Kyle Lohse, Chad Billingsly.

American League

Catchers: Joe Mauer*, Dioner Navarro, Gerald Laird

First Basemen: Jason Giambi*, Kevin Youkilis

Second Basemen: Ian Kinsler*, Brian Roberts

Shortstops: Michael Young*, Derek Jeter

Third Basemen: Alex Rodriguez*, Evan Longoria

Outfielders: JD Drew*, Josh Hamilton*, Carlos Quentin*, Grady Sizemore, Manny Ramirez, Jermaine Dye, Magglio Ordonez

Designated Hitter: Milton Bradley

Starting Pitchers: Cliff Lee*, Joe Saunders, Roy Halladay, Zach Greinke, Felix Hernandez, James Shields, Justin Duchsherer, Ervin Santana

Relief Pitchers: Francisco Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon

The American League was easier (which makes sense with fewer teams) - there were no choices that were made solely to make sure each team is represented. Jermaine Dye was not on my list on Monday, which was an oversight on my part. Notable snubs include Nick Markakis, BJ Upton, Justin Morneau, David DeJesus, John Danks, Shawn Marcum, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Gavin Floyd, Matt Garza, Jon Lester.

American League All Star Selections

[Note that all statistics in this post are through June 29, 2008]

The All Star Game is just around the corner and that means that it is time to go to http://www.mlb.com/ and stuff the virtual ballot box for your favorite players. On the other hand, if you want to vote for the players that have earned their spot on the All Star team, I'm going to give you a handy little guide. Today I'll go through the American League and tomorrow I'll look at the National League.

Before I get started though, I'd like to briefly discuss the qualifications for making the team. In my mind, there are two schools of thought, if you exclude the 'vote for every player on my favorite team' method. There is the 'half season of performance' method and the 'performance plus legacy' method. I think the 'performance plus legacy' method has a valid argument for legitimacy; that argument is that a guy who has never done anything before, but has a great three months at the beginning of the season, should not beat out an established star that has maintained a consistent level of performance over several years, even if the first guy is outperforming the second guy. There is merit to that argument, however, because things like Hall of Fame voting use the number of All Star appearances as a measuring stick, I think the selections should be made only on the merit of the current season. Otherwise, certain guys that get selected by reputation alone will receive unearned credit that they don't deserve (yes, I know this happens all the time - I am just giving my rationale for why selections shouldn't be made this way).

Anyway, my choices will be based on only the performance to this point in the 2008 season, but I will add comments regarding the players' past performance, if you choose to base your selections on other criteria. So, with no further ado, here are the selections:

Catcher

The American League has several legitimate choices at catcher. Here is how I would rank them:

Joe Mauer - .321/.406/.442 - 3 homers, 32 rbi
Dioner Navarro - .317/.368/.444 - 4homers, 31 rbi
Gerald Laird - .306/.360/.437 - 4homers, 25 rbi
AJ Pierzynski - .296/.337/.423 - 5homers, 30 rbi

I am personally not a big fan of the rbi as a comparative statistic, but I am including it for all players because so many people put so much stock in it and some of the comparisons you'll see in these lists show exactly why I dislike it. Anyway, Joe Mauer seems to be the clear leader of this group. He's a hell of a hitter, an on-base machine and he's got solid pop in his bat (if not homerun power). He probably gets the nod from a 'legacy' standpoint over the others on the list, as he put up a near-MVP season in 2006 (he should have won) and has been a premier catcher for the last several years.

First Base

This one is really close and it comes down to (to the disappointment of the rest of the country) New York vs. Boston. Here are the contenders:

Jason Giambi - .262/.396/.542 - 17 homers, 46 rbi
Kevin Youkilis - .313/.382/.544 - 13 homers, 50 rbi
Justin Morneau - .306/.368/.483 - 12 homers, 63 rbi

Morneau is clearly third in this race (although this is the first example of how the rbi can be misleading). Giambi and Youkilis are basically even in slugging percentage and Giambi has a decent lead in OBP, while Youkilis has a solid lead in batting average (which is probably the least important of the "slash" statistics). But they are really close to each other offensively, but Youkilis is far superior to Giambi defensively. I think I would choose Giambi because of the homeruns and the OBP advantage, but I don't think that a vote for Youkilis would be a travesty. Giambi probably has the edge from the 'legacy' standpoint, as a former MVP, although that legacy now also includes a steroids tag.

Second Base

The most deserving second baseman in the American League is one of the most unknown and underrated players in the game. He's not in Chase Utley's league, but it might surprise many to find out that he's not that far behind Utley. Here is the list:

Ian Kinsler - .323/.377/.534 - 13 homers, 50 rbi, 20 sb
Brian Roberts - .293/.370/.478 - 5 homers, 30 rbi, 21 sb
Dustin Pedroia - .304/.348/.442 - 8 homers, 37 rbi, 9 sb

Many people thought that Pedroia was overrated and would come back to Earth this season, myself included, but he has continued to play at a level that not many expected from him. Brian Roberts is having one of his typically great seasons, which would probably give him the 'legacy' edge at this position, since he's been doing this for some time. Ian Kinsler, however, clearly gets the nod here. He was a 20/20 player last season and has raised his game this year and has an outside chance of being a 30/30 player.

Third Base

The answer here is pretty obvious, but a darkhorse candidate seems to gain ground with every game played:

Alex Rodriguez - .322/.404/.591 - 15 homers, 43 rbi, 10 sb
Evan Longoria - .270/.342/.529 - 15 homers, 47 rbi, 4 sb
Joe Crede - .271/.343/.506 - 15 homers, 46 rbi
Mike Lowell - .296/.359/.519 - 12 homers, 46 rbi

I did a preliminary list last week for this post and Longoria didn't make the cut, but he's gaining momentum and is now neck-and-neck with Joe Crede for the backup spot on the team. As a rookie, he certainly doesn't have the 'legacy' vote, but that's only a matter of time. He's going to be a special player. Alex Rodriguez is having another MVP-quality season. He hasn't hit as many homers as he has in the past, but I would expect him to finish with around 40 anyway.

Shortstop

This position used to be a strength for the American League with the 'holy trinity' of Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Nomar Garciaparra. Then Miguel Tejada was added to the mix and throw in Omar Vizquel and someone is going to get snubbed every year. This year, though, I had a difficult time coming up with qualified candidates. Here is my list:

Michael Young - .280/.333/.408 - 7 homers, 43 rbi, 5 sb
Derek Jeter - .284/.344/.393 - 4 homers, 35 rbi, 5 sb

That's it. In most years these guys wouldn't sniff consideration (at least from me - Jeter will always get a lot of votes). Both of these guys have been quality players in the past, but Jeter obviously would win the 'legacy' battle here.

Outfield

I've never understood why outfielders are lumped together - the positions are similar, but you clearly need different skills to play the different outfield positions. Regardless, the votes are for three outfielders, indpendent of position, so that is the way I have them listed as well.

JD Drew - .304/.417/.570 - 15 homers, 48 rbi, 2 sb
Josh Hamilton - .312/.362/565 - 19 homers, 79 rbi, 3 sb
Carlos Quentin - .288/.396/.544 - 19 homers, 61 rbi, 5 sb
Grady Sizemore - .268/.372/.525 - 19 homers, 45 rbi, 19 sb
Manny Ramirez - .289/.378/.519 - 16 homers, 52 rbi
Nick Markakis - .288/.394/.474 - 12 homers, 39 rbi, 8 sb
Magglio Ordonez - .307/.376/.490 - 12 homers, 50 rbi
David DeJesus - .316/.377/.480 - 8 homers, 41 rbi, 6 sb

This is clearly the position of strength for the American League. Any of the first five would be valid selections to start the game and the other three aren't that far behind. Take a close look at the numbers and especially the rbi. Does the difference in rbi between Josh Hamilton and JD Drew (or Grady Sizemore) really tell us anything about the relative abilities of those players? I submit that it does not (to steal a phrase from the hysterical Jeff Kay of the West Virginia Surf Report).

Also, take a look at David DeJesus' season so far. Those are some outstanding numbers that are getting lost in another wasted season for the Royals. DeJesus doesn't fit the mold of the speedy leadoff hitter (his stolen base success rate is barely over 50%), but if he remains at the top of the order and Alex Gordon and Billy Butler continue to develop as hitters, he will score a lot of runs for the Royals in the future.

There is a look at your American League All Stars, check in tomorrow for the National League.

Opening Day Predictions - American League

Yesterday I posted my NL predictions and here are my AL predictions:

AL East: Red Sox - Boston's lineup is getting older and soon they will need a new thumper in the middle as Manny and Big Papi decline, but I think they've got another big year in them. I also think that Daisuke Matsuzaka is going to have a Cy Young quality year now that he's got a year of American baseball under his belt and should be more comfortable. The Schilling injury won't hurt as bad as some think as Clay Bucholtz will soak up the innings without missing a beat. I'm not sure about Bartolo Colon, but as a #4 or #5, it isn't a bad risk to take (since they have Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield to pick up if Colon falters).

While I like Boston better this year, I think the Yankees are set up better for the future. A-Rod will be the centerpiece for the foreseeable future and Wang, Hughes, Kennedy, and Chamberlain provide long-term solutions for the rotation. A lot of big contracts will be gone after this year or next: Giambi, Abreu, Damon, Pettitte, Matsui, Mussina and while they might resign some (Pettitte and Abreau possibly), the others will create a vacuum that will certainly be filled with other high-dollar players (Mark Teixeira, I'm looking at you). While they aren't ready to retake the division, they should still win the Wild Card this season and come back even stronger for 2009.

AL Central: Detroit - As I wrote in an earlier post, the Tiger's window is open. They've got an amazing lineup, with Granderson at the top, Sheffield, Ordonez and Cabrera in the middle, and Pudge Rodriguez, Carlos Guillen, Renteria, and Polonco as complementary pieces. The rotation is strong with Verlander and Bonderman at the top and Rogers, Willis and Robertson filling out the bottom. The bullpen could be the best in baseball if they could stay healthy, but injuries to Zumaya and Rodney present the biggest internal speedbump to Detroit.

The biggest external speedbump to the Tigers is the Indians. Cleveland is walking a fine line with their team this year - if a couple of things go against them, they could be mediocre quickly. Travis Hafner is on the wrong side of 30 and his production is in decline. Victor Martinez isn't far behind him and you have to wonder if staying at catcher will take a toll on his offensive production. The top of their rotation is great, with Sabathia and Carmona, but Bryd, Lee and Westbrook all fail to inspire.

AL West: Seattle - I predict that the AL West will be the worst division in baseball this season and I have the Mariners winning almost by default. The acquision of Erik Bedard gives them a true Ace at the top of their rotation and Felix Hernandez could develop into an Ace before the end of this season. The rotation is shaky thereafter. The lineup probably doesn't have a legitimate 30 homerun threat, but is solid top to bottom with Ichiro, Lopez, Beltre, Sexson and emerging youngster Wladamir Balentien. They are, at best, the fifth best team in the AL, but that should be enough to win a weakened West.

The Angels would be the team that provides the West with some legitimacy, but injuries have them depleted. John Lackey should come back after missing the first month, but Kelvim Escobar might be done for the season and Scot Shields' future is cloudy. I like Jared Weaver, but I'm not sure he's ready to step up and carry the team while Lackey and Escobar are out. Offensively the club still revolves around Vladimir Guerrero and there isn't a lot of power to be found elsewhere, but I think that Howie Kendrick has a chance to be a quality doubles and average kind of hitter.

MVP: Alex Rodriguez - I wanted to put someone else here, I really did, but every time I thought about another player (Grady Sizemore, Manny Ramirez - who I think will have a great season this year, Miguel Cabrera) I kept asking myself if I really thought that they would have a better season than A-Rod and I could never say yes.

Cy Young: Daisuke Matsuzaka - As with Ben Sheets in the NL, I figure if I'm going to make a bold prediction, I might as well take it all the way. I really think he's got the stuff and makeup to be a top shelf starter in this league. He had a very good year last year and he was still adjusting to the schedule and cultural differences in America.

ROY: Adam Jones - If Evan Longoria had started the season in the majors, I think this would be his. Jones is going to be very good and his two month head start on the counting stats will give him the ROY over Longoria.

Nik Markakis: .274/.355/.482 22hr

Miguel Cabrera: .317/.402/.554 32hr

Erik Bedard: 16-6, 3.26 ERA, 204 K's