Offseason Signing: Milton Bradley

The Chicago Cubs signed Milton Bradley to a 3 year, $30M contract recently, causing baseball writers to make way too many horrible jokes about board games. I will try to avoid falling into the same trap, but I will point out that Milton's middle name is Obelle... ok, that didn't work out like I planned - I thought I'd find out that he had a normal middle name and then I'd ask why he didn't just decide years ago to go by his middle name, but Obelle isn't that much better, so I'll just move on to the analysis of his signing.

First of all, the basics: Bradley is a switch-hitting outfielder with very good power and plate discipline. In 2008 he put up a .321/.436/.563 line with 22 home runs for the Texas Rangers in 126 games.

Of course, those numbers lead us right into the negatives: Bradley seems to be a bit injury prone. Over his nine year career, he has only played more than last year's 126 games one time: in 2004 he played in 141 games for the Dodgers. In fact, he blew out his knee at the end of 2007 and played most of 2008 as the Rangers DH, which makes penciling him into the outfield for the Cubs a shaky prospect (he logged 20 games in the OF last year). You also have to consider that Bradley's 2008 numbers were put up in an extreme hitter's ballpark in Texas and they represent career bests in almost every important category.

The final negative piece of the Milton Bradley puzzle is his attitude. He has had dougout clashes with managers and teammates and on field clashes with umpires and fans. The Cubs will be the seventh organziation that Bradley has played for in his nine years, which seems to indicate that some teams may think that he is more trouble than he's worth.

So was he a good pickup for the Cubs? There are many factors that come into play when trying to make that determination. To start with, the contract seems a little long. The money isn't terrible (the Phillies signed Raul Ibanez to a contract for the same length and amount and he's six years older than Bradley and not as good - that is a terrible contract), but giving three years to a guy that can't stay in the lineup seems excessive.

The Cubs are apparently going to use Bradley in right field and move Kosuke Fukudome to center field, with Soriano playing left (in essence, he replaces Jim Edmonds' production down the stretch last year). Only time will tell if Bradley will be able to play the outfield with any level of competency after his knee surgery. Prior to the injury he was viewed as an above average fielder, but you would have to assume that his range has been compromised. That could mean that Kosuke Fukudome will be forced to cover a lot of ground in center field between two sub-par outfielders.

Another aspect is that this seems to close the door on Felix Pie's career in Chicago before it really got started. Pie is a young (will be 24 this season), lefthanded center field prospect that has flashed above average tools across the board in the minor leagues. He has failed to make those tools translate in the big leagues, though, and it appears that the Cubs have grown tired of waiting. A wrinkle to this story is that the Cubs have been trying to trade for Jake Peavy all offseason, using Pie as the centerpiece in the deal. Just prior to signing Bradley, the Cubs also traded Mark DeRosa to the Cleveland Indians for three pitching prospects. There has been speculation that the Cubs made that trade in order to add the pitching prospects that the Padres have wanted to get in return for Peavy. So, the addition of Bradley could be intertwined with the potential addition of Peavy, in that they knew they would have to sacrifice Pie and his potential so they went out and got Bradley.

When healthy, Bradley should be exactly what the Cubs lineup needs. All of the Cubs best hitters swung from the right side only: Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alphonso Soriano, Geovany Soto. Fukudome is lefthanded, but the Cubs are wary of him after he fell off the map in the second half of last year*. Slotting a switch hitter with power and plate discipline in the middle of those right handed sluggers should help balance the lineup. He also will give the Cubs no less than five players in the starting lineup with on base percentages over .350 (and six if Mike Fontenot starts at 2B). That is outstanding and is a great recipe for scoring runs.

But when you compare the Cubs lineup in 2009 to their lineup in 2008, are they better? In effect, they are trading Mark DeRosa and Jim Edmonds for Bradley and an Aaron Miles/Mike Fontenot platoon. DeRosa is clearly better than the Miles/Fontenot platoon (although Fontenot's numbers always surprise me with how good they are), but Bradley is probably a better bet than Edmonds at this point in their respective careers. At best I think the tradeoff is a push and if you consider the blockage of Pie's potential, the team might even be worse off (and defensively they are almost certainly worse). So, while the Bradley acquisition makes sense, the DeRosa trade only seems to make sense if they are able to turn the prospects into Jake Peavy. [Note: I recognize that I got off track here - I was supposed to be talking about the Bradley acquisition and I got off on a little DeRosa trade analysis here, but the Cubs offseason might be the most interesting one outside of the Bronx, so I couldn't help myself. Sue me.]

The two biggest questions I come back to are health and attitude. With fiery Lou Pinella as manager, there is a serious potential for this acquisition to blow up on the Cubs. If Bradley is ineffective because he is in Pinella's doghouse or because he's injured, then this deal looks bad. If Bradley can give the Cubs 450 at bats (something he's only done once before) then he could be a big part of their 2009 success. If it turns out that his acquisition was one of the pieces to also acquiring Jake Peavy, then the Cubs might be looking at some real success (for once).

2008 Playoffs

Ok, so I'm a terrible blogger - sue me. It has been exactly two weeks since I last posted, but don't think that this is an apology and a promise to start posting more regularly. It isn't. I have come to realize that there is far too much going on in my life to have decent posts on a daily basis, so I am going to revert to posting whenever I attend a game, watch a particularly interesting game or have a post idea that particularly interests me. It may be three times a week, once a week or once a month. I apologize for the inconsistency, but that's life. If you don't want to visit the blog every day just to see if something new is posted, send me an email (roarke49 at hotmail dot com) and I will send out a notice whenever I post something new.

So, the playoffs start today (really they started a couple of days ago with the White Sox make up game and the tie-breaker game). Even if your favorite team is not involved, there is a reason to watch each of these series. Playoff baseball is usually very intense and every pitch takes on more meaning. Here are your reasons to watch each series, a breakdown of who should win and who I would like to win.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

I picked the Brewers from the beginning of the season, believing that Ben Sheets would have a Cy Young caliber season and lead the team to the promised land. Sheets did pitch well, but got injured and now will miss the playoffs. No matter, the team picked up CC Sabathia and he led them to the playoffs. This is a fun team to watch with young sluggers like Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart (whose second half swoon cost me in my wager) and savvy veterans like Mike Cameron and Ray Durham.

The Phillies are also a fun team with a balanced combination of speed (Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino) and power (Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell). They also have Cole Hamels as their ace pitcher to match up with Sabathia.

One weak point of both teams is starting pitching depth as Philly will send out Brett Myers (who re-discovered himself after being sent to the minors this season), Joe Blanton and Jaime Moyer while the Brewers have Yovani Gallardo (making his first start in a couple months today), Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush. In the bullpen the Phillies have the advantage, with Brad Lidge being one of the best closers in the game. The Brewers try and get by with Salomon Torres.

I'm going to give the edge to the Phillies because of I like their pitching staff better, but as a fan I'm pulling for the Brewers to win the series because I like their youngsters.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs

A lot of people are pulling for the Chicago Cubs because they have a chance to win for the first time in 100 years, but, beyond my St. Louis bias against the Cubs, there is a very valid reason to be interested in the Cubs losing this series: think about the Red Sox - ok, got 'em in your head? You don't like them very much do you? Their fans are smug, they seem to get an inordinate amount of attention in the media and they spend almost as much as the Yankees do on their payroll. Well, the 2008 Cubs are a lot like the 2004 Red Sox. Both teams inflated their payroll in order to overcome a decades-long World Series drought and both teams became the media darling during the season. The world will be a better place if the Cubs don't replicate the Red Sox success of 2004.

On paper the Cubs match up well against the Dodgers. The Cubs have Zambrano, Dempster, Harden and Lilly as starters who are quite a bit more fearsome than the Dodgers starters: Lowe, Billingsly, Kuroda, Maddux. The Cubs also have a balanced offense built around Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. They are surrounded by veterans like Mark DeRosa, Jim Edmonds and Kosuke Fukudome and youngsters like probable ROY Geovany Soto and Ryan Theriot.

The Dodgers hopes rely on the hot bats of Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier and solid performances from Russell Martin, Matt Kemp and James Loney. One wild card is the health of Rafael Furcal, who will be playing for the first time in a long time (and trying to earn himself a pile of cash in free agency). Healthy and motivated, Furcal could be a huge difference maker in this series.

I think the Cubs will probably win the series - they just have an edge in talent, especially their pitching staff (and I didn't even talk about Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol in their bullpen), that will be difficult for the Dodgers to overcome. Of course, I will be rooting for the Dodgers to beat the snot out of the Cubs at every turn.

Anaheim Angels vs. Boston Red Sox

Despite what I wrote above about the Red Sox, they are becoming more likeable. How can you not root for cancer survivor Jon Lester? How can you not like the shrewd trade of Manny Ramirez (and other spare parts) for Jason Bay? [ok, Manny has been great for LA, but in the long run the Red Sox did very well for themselves in getting Bay to replace Manny. He's maybe 75% of Manny offensively, but he's a lot better defensively and from a money standpoint they are getting much more value per dollar with Bay than with Manny] While the Red Sox could not pull out the division title, they are very dangerous as a Wild Card team. They have excellent pitching with Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester and hopefully a healthy Josh Beckett. They have a good bullpen with Jonathon Papelbon closing out games. And they have a solid lineup with sparkplug Dustin Pedroia, Big Papi, Bay, Ellsbury, Youkilis and a hopefully healthy JD Drew and Mike Lowell.

The Angels have been on cruise control this season, blowing away the AL West. They grabbed Torii Hunter in the offseason and Mark Teixeira during the season to go with Vladimir Guerrero and they have the strongest pitching staff in baseball with John Lackey, Jared Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana and Jon Garland starting and K-Rod closing games.

This should be a very interesting series and I think it may hinge on the health of several Boston players, most notably Josh Beckett. If Beckett can pitch and Lowell and Drew are at full strength, I think the Red Sox have a chance. Otherwise the Angels pitching will be too strong for them. I'm picking the Angels to win and that's who I'm rooting for, as well (yeah, yeah I know what I said about Lester and Bay, their fans are still too obnoxious to every root for that team).

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox

The White Sox bring out conflicting feelings in me. On one hand I can't stand Ozzie Guillen's arrogant attitude (and his managing decisions are very Tony Pena-esque - just with better talent to employ). But on the other hand, it is difficult for me to root against good guys like Ken Griffey, Jr. and Jim Thome trying to get their first World Series ring. The White Sox have a big hole in their lineup due to the injury to their team MVP, Carlos Quentin (.288/.394/.571 with 36HR in the 130 games before he broke his wrist) and Thome, Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko will have to step up to fill the void (the team went 11-14 in September after Quentin went down).

The Rays are one of the most exciting young teams in the majors with talented players like BJ Upton and Carl Crawford, who can do everything on the field and veteran Carlos Pena who crushes the ball. They also have a very talented pitching staff with James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza leading the staff. Possibly the two best players on the team, however, are rookies that started the season in the minor leagues. Third baseman Evan Longoria is a power-hitting, gold glove caliber fielding stud that will be in MVP discussions for years to come (and should win the ROY this year) and LHP David Price was the first pick overall in 2007 and has the chance to dominate the league.

I like the Rays offense in this series, but the White Sox pitching (Burle, Vazquez, Danks, and Floyd starting and Jenks closing). I usually take the pitching over the hitting, but I think the White Sox are really going to miss Quentin in this series and the Rays will take it. I really can't say who I'll root for because I like the Rays young players, but I would like to see Griffey and Thome get their rings. Tough.

Watched: Cubs at Brewers - 7/28/08

It is far too early to pin playoff hopes on one series, but this Chicago/Milwaukee series is as important as a series can be in late July. Miller Park was rocking last night and the atmosphere was similar to a playoff game. (Have I met my cliche quota, yet? Ok, good).

This game was so good that it is tough to avoid cliche in describing it. From the sixth inning until the end it was a back and forth battle that ended when a game-tying homerun bid fell short on the warning track. The Cubs kept taking leads and the Brewers kept launching home runs to come back - JJ Hardy, Ryan Braun and Russell Branyon all went deep.

CC Sabathia pitched well and was betrayed by his defense, particularly Rickie Weeks, in the seventh inning. Weeks flubbed a hard grounder that was ruled an infield hit (should have been an error) and then threw away the relay on what would have been an inning-ending double play, but instead allowed the Cubs to score the tying and go-ahead runs.

Regardless, the Brewers came back and tied the game again. But the Brewers bullpen blew the game in the top of the ninth when closer Solomon Torres couldn't keep the game tied. The Milwaukee bullpen has been a bit suspect lately, and while you wouldn't want to overreact to one game, it wouldn't surprise me if the Brewers moved quickly (duh, the trading deadline is in two days) to shore up their pen.

The teams play three more games this week and they will all be fun to watch, especially tonight's game featuring Carlos Zambrano and Ben Sheets.

Trade: Harden to Cubs

The Cubs wasted little time in answering the Brewers' aquisition of CC Sabathia. Rich Harden isn't quite as much of a sure thing as Sabathia is, but if he can stay healthy he can provide similar results.

While I liked the Sabathia deal for both the Brewers and the Indians, I'm not as sure that I like this deal for Oakland. Perhaps they felt that they had to strike while the Cubs were still feeling the pressure of the Brewers deal or perhaps they wanted to make the move before Harden could hurt himself again, but the move seems a little premature to me. Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus wrote that he believed that the Indians could have gotten more for Sabathia if they had waited until closer to the trade deadline, I can only imagine what he thinks of this move (actually, I'll probably read about it tomorrow). It seems to me that Oakland had even more incentive to wait to trade Harden: with Sabathia off the market, Harden became the best available starting pitcher on the trade market. Had Oakland waited and played all of the potential suitors off of one another, they could have driven the price up - potentially higher than what the Brewers paid for Sabathia.

There are several differences between this trade and the Sabathia trade. First, Harden will not be a free agent until after the 2009 season, so he is not merely a second half rental, as Sabathia is expected to be. Second, Oakland is also sending Chad Gaudin to the Cubs. Gaudin is a young (25 years old) right handed pitcher that has started some in his career and has also come out of the pen. He is the type of pitcher that will not be a difference maker, but can be a valuable pitcher to a contender. Third, none of the players that Oakland received back from the Cubs appear to have star potential like Matt LaPorta does in the Sabathia trade. Sean Gallagher is probably the best prospect in the deal; he is a twenty-two year old starting pitcher that has a pretty decent strikeout ratio. I've never seen him pitch, but he seems like he might have the potential to be a decent mid-rotation starter. Matt Murton has proven to be a valuable fourth outfielder for a major league team (he was probably being under-utilized by the Cubs, actually). Eric Patterson is an exciting slash and burn type of player that would be much more valuable if he could stay at second base, but the Cubs had decided that he would have to be an outfielder if he was to make it in the big leagues. Perhaps Oakland disagrees and will shift him back to the infield. The final piece is Josh Donaldson, who is a catcher that is still at low A Peoria, so it is difficult to know what they've got in him.

So, while LaPorta seems to be the type of player that can be used by the Indians as a foundation to their offense, Oakland hasn't really received anyone with quite as clear of a path. Gallagher represents one of the most valuable commodities in baseball: a cost-controlled starting pitcher, but those are also much more speculative than players of LaPorta's ilk (as Oakland knows - it worked for them with Danny Haren and did not with Dan Meyer).

I'm not trying to argue that Oakland should have received as much as Cleveland received for Sabathia, I am only wondering why they made the deal now, for a package that can hardly be described as 'bowling them over'. It is almost heresy in some circles to criticize Billy Beane's moves, but they don't always work out (as the Tim Hudson for Dan Meyer deal showed). Oakland almost certainly got some useful pieces in this deal, but I have to believe that they could have gotten more had they waited until July 31st to make a trade. They may get to test that theory if they decide to also trade Joe Blanton this month.

The questions we are left with are: Is AJ Burnett the next pitcher to get traded? Erik Bedard? Which team will feel the pressure to make a move next (St. Louis?)?