2008 Playoffs

Ok, so I'm a terrible blogger - sue me. It has been exactly two weeks since I last posted, but don't think that this is an apology and a promise to start posting more regularly. It isn't. I have come to realize that there is far too much going on in my life to have decent posts on a daily basis, so I am going to revert to posting whenever I attend a game, watch a particularly interesting game or have a post idea that particularly interests me. It may be three times a week, once a week or once a month. I apologize for the inconsistency, but that's life. If you don't want to visit the blog every day just to see if something new is posted, send me an email (roarke49 at hotmail dot com) and I will send out a notice whenever I post something new.

So, the playoffs start today (really they started a couple of days ago with the White Sox make up game and the tie-breaker game). Even if your favorite team is not involved, there is a reason to watch each of these series. Playoff baseball is usually very intense and every pitch takes on more meaning. Here are your reasons to watch each series, a breakdown of who should win and who I would like to win.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

I picked the Brewers from the beginning of the season, believing that Ben Sheets would have a Cy Young caliber season and lead the team to the promised land. Sheets did pitch well, but got injured and now will miss the playoffs. No matter, the team picked up CC Sabathia and he led them to the playoffs. This is a fun team to watch with young sluggers like Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart (whose second half swoon cost me in my wager) and savvy veterans like Mike Cameron and Ray Durham.

The Phillies are also a fun team with a balanced combination of speed (Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino) and power (Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell). They also have Cole Hamels as their ace pitcher to match up with Sabathia.

One weak point of both teams is starting pitching depth as Philly will send out Brett Myers (who re-discovered himself after being sent to the minors this season), Joe Blanton and Jaime Moyer while the Brewers have Yovani Gallardo (making his first start in a couple months today), Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush. In the bullpen the Phillies have the advantage, with Brad Lidge being one of the best closers in the game. The Brewers try and get by with Salomon Torres.

I'm going to give the edge to the Phillies because of I like their pitching staff better, but as a fan I'm pulling for the Brewers to win the series because I like their youngsters.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs

A lot of people are pulling for the Chicago Cubs because they have a chance to win for the first time in 100 years, but, beyond my St. Louis bias against the Cubs, there is a very valid reason to be interested in the Cubs losing this series: think about the Red Sox - ok, got 'em in your head? You don't like them very much do you? Their fans are smug, they seem to get an inordinate amount of attention in the media and they spend almost as much as the Yankees do on their payroll. Well, the 2008 Cubs are a lot like the 2004 Red Sox. Both teams inflated their payroll in order to overcome a decades-long World Series drought and both teams became the media darling during the season. The world will be a better place if the Cubs don't replicate the Red Sox success of 2004.

On paper the Cubs match up well against the Dodgers. The Cubs have Zambrano, Dempster, Harden and Lilly as starters who are quite a bit more fearsome than the Dodgers starters: Lowe, Billingsly, Kuroda, Maddux. The Cubs also have a balanced offense built around Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. They are surrounded by veterans like Mark DeRosa, Jim Edmonds and Kosuke Fukudome and youngsters like probable ROY Geovany Soto and Ryan Theriot.

The Dodgers hopes rely on the hot bats of Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier and solid performances from Russell Martin, Matt Kemp and James Loney. One wild card is the health of Rafael Furcal, who will be playing for the first time in a long time (and trying to earn himself a pile of cash in free agency). Healthy and motivated, Furcal could be a huge difference maker in this series.

I think the Cubs will probably win the series - they just have an edge in talent, especially their pitching staff (and I didn't even talk about Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol in their bullpen), that will be difficult for the Dodgers to overcome. Of course, I will be rooting for the Dodgers to beat the snot out of the Cubs at every turn.

Anaheim Angels vs. Boston Red Sox

Despite what I wrote above about the Red Sox, they are becoming more likeable. How can you not root for cancer survivor Jon Lester? How can you not like the shrewd trade of Manny Ramirez (and other spare parts) for Jason Bay? [ok, Manny has been great for LA, but in the long run the Red Sox did very well for themselves in getting Bay to replace Manny. He's maybe 75% of Manny offensively, but he's a lot better defensively and from a money standpoint they are getting much more value per dollar with Bay than with Manny] While the Red Sox could not pull out the division title, they are very dangerous as a Wild Card team. They have excellent pitching with Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jon Lester and hopefully a healthy Josh Beckett. They have a good bullpen with Jonathon Papelbon closing out games. And they have a solid lineup with sparkplug Dustin Pedroia, Big Papi, Bay, Ellsbury, Youkilis and a hopefully healthy JD Drew and Mike Lowell.

The Angels have been on cruise control this season, blowing away the AL West. They grabbed Torii Hunter in the offseason and Mark Teixeira during the season to go with Vladimir Guerrero and they have the strongest pitching staff in baseball with John Lackey, Jared Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana and Jon Garland starting and K-Rod closing games.

This should be a very interesting series and I think it may hinge on the health of several Boston players, most notably Josh Beckett. If Beckett can pitch and Lowell and Drew are at full strength, I think the Red Sox have a chance. Otherwise the Angels pitching will be too strong for them. I'm picking the Angels to win and that's who I'm rooting for, as well (yeah, yeah I know what I said about Lester and Bay, their fans are still too obnoxious to every root for that team).

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox

The White Sox bring out conflicting feelings in me. On one hand I can't stand Ozzie Guillen's arrogant attitude (and his managing decisions are very Tony Pena-esque - just with better talent to employ). But on the other hand, it is difficult for me to root against good guys like Ken Griffey, Jr. and Jim Thome trying to get their first World Series ring. The White Sox have a big hole in their lineup due to the injury to their team MVP, Carlos Quentin (.288/.394/.571 with 36HR in the 130 games before he broke his wrist) and Thome, Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko will have to step up to fill the void (the team went 11-14 in September after Quentin went down).

The Rays are one of the most exciting young teams in the majors with talented players like BJ Upton and Carl Crawford, who can do everything on the field and veteran Carlos Pena who crushes the ball. They also have a very talented pitching staff with James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza leading the staff. Possibly the two best players on the team, however, are rookies that started the season in the minor leagues. Third baseman Evan Longoria is a power-hitting, gold glove caliber fielding stud that will be in MVP discussions for years to come (and should win the ROY this year) and LHP David Price was the first pick overall in 2007 and has the chance to dominate the league.

I like the Rays offense in this series, but the White Sox pitching (Burle, Vazquez, Danks, and Floyd starting and Jenks closing). I usually take the pitching over the hitting, but I think the White Sox are really going to miss Quentin in this series and the Rays will take it. I really can't say who I'll root for because I like the Rays young players, but I would like to see Griffey and Thome get their rings. Tough.

Desperation: The Milwaukee Brewers

[UPDATE: DAILY LINKS FOR 9/16/08 HAVE BEEN ADDED BELOW]

Today the Brewers fired manager Ned Yost. Rob Neyer called the move unprecedented, in that no manager of a team in the running for the playoffs has been fired this late in the season. If the season ended today, the Brewers would be tied for the Wild Card. Of course, the Brewers have been in a big slide, having gone 3-11 so far this month.

So, has Yost been to blame for the slide? Well, Joe Sheehan points out that some questionable moves by Yost certainly haven't helped, but I don't think that you can reasonably place the blame on Yost for the Brewer's slide (mainly because managerial decisions don't really have that big of an impact on games).

But here's the thing: the Brewers had no other option. They went all in prior to the deadline by trading for CC Sabathia and that worked beautifully for them. Sabathia has been better than they could have ever hoped for. But Sabathia isn't enough and the Brewers can't make any more player moves. The playoffs are slowly slipping away from them and the team felt like it needed to make a move. Taking out Yost was really all that was left for them. The hope is that the move will serve as a wake up call over the next fifteen days and the team will catch fire heading into the playoffs. It is a move of desperation and probably the only move the team had left. The real question is why a talented team like this would need such a desperate measure to motivate them.

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Daily Links - 9/16/08

A few days ago, when I posted about Mickey Mantle being the greatest switch-hitter of all time, a commenter asked about Pete Rose (and continued to argue for Rose in private correspondence). I still don't think it is close between Mantle and Rose, although Rose was a great ballplayer. Coincidentally, Joe Posnanski (TBSWIA) posted a comparison between Derek Jeter and Rose that is very close, at least through their age 34 seasons. I think I prefer Rose in that comparison, but it is a close call - Jeter will have to keep up his pace for several more years, though, in order to be close at the end of his career.

Is the Diamondbacks fall from grace due to the decidedly "un-clutch" David Eckstein? [Note: I pray that some day some one will find this site by googling "Decidedly un-clutch & Eckstein." That would be fantastic.]

Here are the quotes from last week. The Ned Yost quotes are particularly interesting.

This is an interesting Q&A from Baseball America that goes back and re-thinks the 2006 draft using what we know now about the players.

This post lists the worst #9 hitters ever. Why? I'm not really sure, but it is strangely fascinating. The worst ever was so bad that a baseball term was coined based on how crappy he was with a bat in his hands.

Watched: Cubs at Brewers - 7/28/08

It is far too early to pin playoff hopes on one series, but this Chicago/Milwaukee series is as important as a series can be in late July. Miller Park was rocking last night and the atmosphere was similar to a playoff game. (Have I met my cliche quota, yet? Ok, good).

This game was so good that it is tough to avoid cliche in describing it. From the sixth inning until the end it was a back and forth battle that ended when a game-tying homerun bid fell short on the warning track. The Cubs kept taking leads and the Brewers kept launching home runs to come back - JJ Hardy, Ryan Braun and Russell Branyon all went deep.

CC Sabathia pitched well and was betrayed by his defense, particularly Rickie Weeks, in the seventh inning. Weeks flubbed a hard grounder that was ruled an infield hit (should have been an error) and then threw away the relay on what would have been an inning-ending double play, but instead allowed the Cubs to score the tying and go-ahead runs.

Regardless, the Brewers came back and tied the game again. But the Brewers bullpen blew the game in the top of the ninth when closer Solomon Torres couldn't keep the game tied. The Milwaukee bullpen has been a bit suspect lately, and while you wouldn't want to overreact to one game, it wouldn't surprise me if the Brewers moved quickly (duh, the trading deadline is in two days) to shore up their pen.

The teams play three more games this week and they will all be fun to watch, especially tonight's game featuring Carlos Zambrano and Ben Sheets.

Trade: Sabathia for LaPorta and others

The first big trade of the season came today, more than three weeks before the trading deadline. Getting the trade done so early puts the Brewers in a unique position: they could conceivably trade Sabathia away if they somehow fall apart in the next three weeks. Imagine a scenario where the Cubs and Cardinals (or some other Wild Card contender) get hot, Ben Sheets gets injured (not hard to imagine) and the Brewers fall ten games back in the Central and 5-7 back in the Wild Card. Under such a scenario, maybe the Brewers re-trade Sabathia for prospects in an effort to re-load for next year.

Ok, now that the implausible is out of the way (it is much more likely that the Brewers are energized by the acquisition and pull ahead in the Wild Card and closer to the Cubs in the Central), lets get to the trade itself. I think the trade is a great one for both teams. From the Brewers perspective, they now have arguably the best 1-2 punch at the top of their starting rotation in the National League (Arizona with Webb and Haren would be the other candidate for that honor). The move also allows Jeff Suppan to slot back into the #3 slot in the rotation, which fits his 'league-average-innings eater' profile much better. With young stud lefthander, Manny Parra, in the #4 slot and future-ace Yovanni Gallardo scheduled to come off the DL late in the season, the Brewers could have a very stingy rotation come playoff time.

Then you look at what they gave up. The big name, of course, is Matt LaPorta. LaPorta was a power hitting first baseman at Florida and many considered him to be the best college hitter in the 2006 draft. The Brewers took him with the seventh overall pick, which surprised everyone because they already had Prince Fielder holding down first base for the foreseeable future. The Brewers turned LaPorta into a left fielder and he has been tearing up the minor leagues since being drafted. The problem was that, even if he could play outfield passably (which is up for debate), the Brewers still didn't really have a spot for him. They moved Ryan Braun to left field from third base this season - a move that was an absolute necessity considering Braun's defense at third. It is unlikely that LaPorta would be able to play a credible right field, but even so, the Brewers have Corey Hart, who is one of the better players on the team (and a personal favorite of mine). There is some talk that Hart could play center field, but an outfield of Braun, Hart and LaPorta would have certainly been the worst defensive outfield in all of baseball. Maybe ever.

So while it was becoming apparently that LaPorta didn't have much left to prove in the minor leagues, it was a serious question of where the Brewers were ever going to play him. That he became the centerpiece in a deal to acquire one of the top pitchers in baseball seems like a perfect utilization of assets to me.

The Indians, on the hand, have no use for CC Sabathia right now. They faced the grim realization that their hopes for contending this season are over (they are in last place in the AL Central, a game and a half behind the Royals as I'm writing this). Grady Sizemore is having a fantastic season and Casey Blake is playing well for being, well, Casey Blake. Otherwise, every one of their offensive players have disappointed this season. Many people expected Travis Hafner to bounce back after a down season for him last year, but instead he fell off a cliff. Ryan Garko has slugged .342 as the Indians everyday first baseman. Victor Martinez' OPS is .665 and he hasn't hit a home run yet. On the pitching side, Cliff Lee has been outstanding and Sabathia has been great since his rough first month of the season. Paul Bryd has been his usual less-than-mediocre self and Fausto Carmona has been injured for about half of the season.

On top of the really bad baseball that they've been playing all season, the Indians were in a bad spot with Sabathia. He is due to be a free agent after the season and he refused to work on an extension with the team during the season. Left with the option of holding onto him and receiving two compensatory draft picks for him, or trading him for four prospects, I think they made the right decision. LaPorta is almost certainly more valuable by himself than the highest of those picks, if only because he has proven to be successful at AA and draft picks are still mostly a crap shoot (not to mention that there is no guarantee that the picks would be at the top of the first round - that depends on who signs Sabathia as a free agent).

So they get LaPorta (for starters), who should be competing for either Garko or Hafner's job next season and will certainly be a starter in the big leagues by the end of 2009 (barring unforeseen circumstances). He will probably never hit for a high average in the major leagues, but he should provide solid power in the middle of the Indians lineup. As long as they hold onto Sizemore and Ben Francisco continues to develop, LaPorta gives them the start of a nice offense. A couple of other savvy pickups and they are right back in the playoff hunt - which makes this deal a nice accelerant for a rebuilding effort.

The trade should really be analyzed like this:

To Brewers:

The increase in potential to make the playoffs in 2008

The ability to try and sell Sabathia on Milwaukee for the rest of the season (possibly negligible in value)

A first round pick (assuming Sabathia signs elsewhere)

A supplemental first round pick

From Brewers:

A former top draft pick with no position to play for the foreseeable future

Three other lesser prospects

To Indians:

A potential middle-of-the-order hitter that can replace either of two weak spots on the big league squad within a season or so

Three other lesser prospects

From Indians:

An ace starting pitcher that wasn't going to make any significant difference in the outcome of this season and who wouldn't be with the Indians next year (unless they sign him as a free agent, which they can still do)

The right to two draft picks.